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Virtuous Cycle of the Population and Economic Development——Experience After the Reform and Opening-up in China
Virtuous Cycle of the Population and Economic Development——Experience After the Reform and Opening-up in China
报告字数：29859字
报告页数：14页
摘要：1.In the present-day world，there exits two kinds of population issues，belonging to two kinds of cycles between different population and economic deve-lopment. One is categorised by a population surplus，belonging to the high fertility rate—low labour productivity—high fertility cycle model；the other is categorised by a demographic and labour productivity deficiency，belonging to the low fertility rate—high labour productivity—low fertility rate cycle model. The latter could be seen as the high-level cycle model of the population and economic development. However，taking the world as a whole，among the world population of 1990，that of the developing countries accounted for about 77.2%，total fertility rate（TFR）was 4.6（not including China，the same for the following figures），birth rate was 35 per thousand，and natural growth rate was 2.4%. The per capita GNP for 1988 was 870 US ＄，basically belonging to the primitive cycle model of high fertility rate—low labour productivity—high fertillity rate. Developed countries and regions accounted for about 22.8%of the population of the world. Its total fertility rate was 2.0，birth rate was 15 per thousand，natural growth rate was 0.5%. The per capita GNP for 1988 was 15.830 US$，entering into the high—level cycle model of low fertility rate—high labour productivity—low fertility rate. Clearly，looking at the predominant aspects，the demographic problem of the world is mainly that of the population surplus，fast growth，which are not corresponding to the economic development，therefore belonging to the previous category of primitive cycle between the population and economic development.
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